​Is it unreasonable to ask the Phils to score 3 lousy runs in a game?

​

If and when a baseball team - especially a good team - scores 3 or more runs, it's a historical fact that team will win about 70% of the time on average. And it's also a historical fact that a team which fails to score 3 runs is very likely to lose.

​

Willie took a look at the 12 MLB teams currently in playoff position at the All-Star break, and here some observations:

​

1. The Phillies do not need a ton of offense to win games. In fact, their record is 47-17 in games where they have scored 3 or more runs. That's a .727 winning percentage, good enough to win 119 games (if only they could hit the magic 3-run number every game), and better than all 6 AL teams that are currently in playoff position.

​

2. However, of the 6 NL teams currently in playoff position, 4 are outperforming the Phils in games where they have scored 3 or more runs - Brewers (a crazy .797 win percentage), Cubs (.761), Dodgers (.743), and Mets (.735 - just .001 better than the Phils).

 

3. In games where they have scored 2 or fewer runs, the Phils have fared poorly but are cagier than most other top teams. The Phils are 8-24 in those games (.250 win percentage). Of the other 11 teams in playoff position, only the Astros (.375) and Padres (.314) have done better.

​

So far, so good, right? But all is not well for our Fightins.

​

​

THE BUGABOO

​

The Phillies have excellent starters and pretty good relievers (well, at least OK relievers). They have held opponents to 2 or fewer runs 41 times. No other team in playoff position has done better. But too often this season, the Phils have allowed those superb efforts to go to waste. They have lost SEVEN (7) games in which their opponents scored 2 or fewer runs.

 

In terms of win percentage, here is how the Phils stack up against the other 11 MLB teams in playoff position:​