Do not trade up, trade down, or trade away that #3 pick.

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A study of the past 20 NBA drafts shows conclusively how valuable a top 5 draft pick is. This is not the NFL, where many hidden gems can be found down the line. In the NBA, the talent is almost always at the top of the draft.

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Forget the Markelle Fultz fiasco. Mistakes happen. Number 3 is definitely where the Sixers need to stay.

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There have been 600 first round picks since 2005.  Of these, 79 (13%) have gone on to play in the NBA All-Star Game. But what happens if, instead of looking at the entire first round, you look only at the top half, or the top 10, or the top 5?

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64 of those 79 All-Stars (81%) were picked in the top half of the first round. Of those 64, 52 (81%) were picked in the top 10. And of those 52, 39 (75%) were picked in the top 5.

 

In other words, nearly half of all the draft picks who have gone on to become All-Stars were drafted in the top 5. They accounted for 146 All-Star game lineup slots.

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Let's look at it a different way. 48% of the #1 through #3 picks since 2005 have gone on to become All-Stars. And indeed, ​50% of the #3 picks (including Joel Embiid) have gone on to become All-Stars.

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After that, it drops off precipitously. Only 16% of the #4 through #10 picks have become All-Stars.  And only 7% of the remaining #11 through #30 picks have become All-Stars. ​And for what it is worth, only 1.8% of second round picks have become All-Stars (even though that number includes Nikola Jokić and Jalen Brunson).

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More slots in the last 20 All-Star games have gone to top 5 draft picks than to all other draft picks combined.

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Without a doubt, the top 5 is where it's at, and the Sixers are at #3. A future All-Star is there for the taking.

 

Look 'em over carefully, Daryl Morey, and choose wisely.